Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 20 at the 85

Baltimore Ravens 17 – New Orleans Saints 14

(11:28) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to NO 32, Center-46-M.Cox. 41-A.Kamara to NO 44 for 12 yards (27-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 85, worth -4.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model