4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 53

New Orleans Saints 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 9-D.Brees up the middle to NO 48 for 1 yard (93-C.Wormley).

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.41 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 53, worth -3.26 EP
KICK -2.35 EP
  • 16% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 84% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model