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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 47

Baltimore Ravens 10 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(11:09) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to NO 01, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-10-C.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.15 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP