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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 14

Baltimore Ravens 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(6:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.10 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 14, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP