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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 34

Baltimore Ravens 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(8:14) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 13-J.Brown to NO 21 for 13 yards (20-K.Crawley).

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.40 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -1.61 EP
KICK +0.26 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model