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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 66

New Orleans Saints 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(13:30) (Punt formation) 7-T.Hill up the middle to NO 38 for 4 yards (40-K.Young). Fake punt and direct snap to Hill.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 24, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model