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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 67

New England Patriots 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to CHI 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 37 for 17 yards (35-K.Crossen).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.84 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 67, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 25, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP