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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 33

New England Patriots 38 – Chicago Bears 31

What Actually Happened

(:30) 6-R.Allen punts 33 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +1.09 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.75 EP