4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 65

Chicago Bears 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to NE 25, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.69 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 65, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 23, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model