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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 62

New England Patriots 31 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(1:30) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to CHI 24, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds. PENALTY on CHI-22-K.Toliver II, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 24.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.93 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 62, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP