Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 76

Chicago Bears 17 – New England Patriots 14

(9:57) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to NE 33, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-J.Edelman to NE 36 for 3 yards (30-B.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.37 EP
66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 76, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model