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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 55

Minnesota Vikings 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 6-M.Wile punts 41 yards to NYJ 14, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.34 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 55, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP