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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 23

New York Jets 17 – Minnesota Vikings 37

What Actually Happened

(:51) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 40-T.Cannon to MIN 12 for 11 yards (40-K.Brothers).

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
What Happened
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.30 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 33, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.32 EP