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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Jets
4th & 1 at the 45
New York Jets 17 – Minnesota Vikings 37
What Actually Happened
(2:07) (Shotgun) 40-T.Cannon right end to MIN 39 for 6 yards (96-T.Johnson).
The Three Options
GO
+1.04 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.36 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -1.68 EP
KICK
-0.72 EP
- 31% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
- 69% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT
-0.68 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.68 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
