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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 34

Minnesota Vikings 27 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(5:23) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 17-A.Robinson for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.21 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 34, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 44, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model