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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 80

Minnesota Vikings 27 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 6-M.Wile punts 37 yards to NYJ 43, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 80, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 37, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model