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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 68

New York Jets 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to MIN 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.97 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 68, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 26, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model