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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 4

Minnesota Vikings 17 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(5:52) 5-D.Bailey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 4, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP