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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 62

New York Jets 7 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(13:31) 4-L.Edwards punts 31 yards to MIN 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 15-B.Zylstra to MIN 36 for 5 yards (46-N.Hewitt; 17-C.Peake).

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.57 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 62, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model