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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 24

Minnesota Vikings 10 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(:47) 5-D.Bailey 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.15 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 24, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 34, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model