4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 43

Minnesota Vikings 10 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 6-M.Wile punts 27 yards to NYJ 16, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.53 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model