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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 70

New York Jets 7 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 4-L.Edwards punts 58 yards to MIN 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 20 for 8 yards (46-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.24 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 70, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 28, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model