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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 8

Minnesota Vikings 7 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(10:16) 5-D.Bailey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.50 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 8, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model