4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 88

New York Jets 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 4-L.Edwards FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ -3, and recovers at NYJ -3. 4-L.Edwards punts 28 yards to NYJ 40, out of bounds. PENALTY on NYJ-51-B.Copeland, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.93 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 88, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.41 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 46, worth -2.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model