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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 60

Minnesota Vikings 7 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 6-M.Wile punts 49 yards to NYJ 11, Center-47-K.McDermott. 19-A.Roberts MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYJ 7. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 7 for no gain (27-J.Kearse).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.93 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 60, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 19, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model