4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 65

Los Angeles Rams 39 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 6-J.Hekker punts 2 yards to LA 37, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA. Punt deflected by 53-M.Nzeocha.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.39 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP