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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 74

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to SF 24, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 13-R.James to SF 30 for 6 yards (59-M.Kiser).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 32, worth -2.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model