Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 19 at the 84

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 10

(13:03) 5-B.Pinion punt is BLOCKED by 58-C.Littleton, Center-86-K.Nelson, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.

The Three Options

GO -2.80 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 84, worth -4.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model