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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 72

Denver Broncos 42 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 3-C.Wadman punts 48 yards to ARI 24, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 32 for 8 yards (32-A.Janovich).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.36 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP