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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 56

Denver Broncos 42 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 3-C.Wadman punts 48 yards to ARI 8, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk. PENALTY on ARI-21-P.Peterson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 4 yards, enforced at ARI 8.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 56, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP