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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 77

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(12:29) 2-A.Lee punts 54 yards to DEN 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 30-P.Lindsay pushed ob at DEN 23 for no gain (30-R.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.25 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 77, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 34, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model