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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 52

Denver Broncos 28 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 3-C.Wadman punts 41 yards to ARI 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.09 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 52, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model