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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 56

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Denver Broncos 28

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 2-A.Lee punts 50 yards to DEN 6, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-D.Hamilton. DEN-17-D.Hamilton was injured during the play. PENALTY on ARI-26-Bra.Williams, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 6.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.60 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP