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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 42

Washington Commanders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(5:59) 5-T.Way punts 27 yards to DAL 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.85 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 42, worth -1.77 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model