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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 56

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 4-D.Prescott right guard to DAL 44 for no gain (36-D.Swearinger). FUMBLES (36-D.Swearinger), RECOVERED by WAS-36-D.Swearinger at DAL 45. QB sneak

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.93 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 56, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model