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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 68

Washington Commanders 20 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to DAL 31, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 36 for 5 yards (52-R.Anderson; 48-K.Ladler).

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.81 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -2.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model