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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 55

Washington Commanders 13 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(6:28) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to DAL 14, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-32-S.Perine.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.25 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 55, worth -2.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP