Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 91

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Washington Commanders 10

(2:32) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to WAS 46, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 37-G.Stroman to WAS 49 for 3 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO -3.40 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.61 EP
67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 91, worth -5.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model