Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 69

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Washington Commanders 10

(7:44) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to WAS 28, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
52% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model