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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 3

Washington Commanders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 3-D.Hopkins 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.09 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 3, worth +0.40 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP