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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 39

Washington Commanders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(:04) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 17-M.Floyd.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.16 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 39, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 48, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP