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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 73

Cleveland Browns 2 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to TB 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-A.Humphries pushed ob at TB 45 for 13 yards (47-C.Hughlett).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.04 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model