Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 95

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 – Cleveland Browns 16

(2:50) 9-B.Anger punts 43 yards to TB 48, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 22-J.Peppers to TB 16 for 32 yards (59-D.Bond).

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.43 EP
53% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 95, worth -5.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model