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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 55

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(9:41) 9-B.Anger punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.63 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 55, worth -2.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP