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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 67

Cleveland Browns 9 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to TB 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-A.Humphries ran ob at TB 27 for 13 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.17 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model