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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 56

Cleveland Browns 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 4-B.Colquitt punts 55 yards to TB 1, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-27-T.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.88 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model