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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 53

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 62-L.Clark reported in as eligible. 25-M.Mack left tackle to BUF 43 for 10 yards (23-M.Hyde).

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.86 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 53, worth -3.40 EP
KICK -2.01 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.24 EP
PUNT -1.07 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model