4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 73

Buffalo Bills 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to IND 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.12 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 73, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 31, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model