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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 50

Buffalo Bills 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to IND 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.78 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 50, worth -3.07 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model