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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 20

Buffalo Bills 5 – Indianapolis Colts 31

What Actually Happened

(10:59) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short right to 45-M.Murphy to IND 17 for 3 yards (34-M.Mitchell).

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.58 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 20, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model